Climate change is characterized by rising temperatures, precipitation/precipitation changes, sea level rise, and extreme events that will impact on water availability in a region. An analysis of the number of weather stations limited showed a temperature rise of about 0.5o occurred in the 20th century. This condition is in line with the projected global temperature rise of IPCC AR-4 about 0.7o ± 0.2 per century. The risk of declining water availability due to climate change in the Penukal Abab Lematang Ilir (PALI) regency, South Sumatra will be assessed through a model projection scenario analysis until 2030 against the 1960-1990 data base as a normal reference condition. The study was conducted using spatial analysis to show the risk of decreasing water availability using Geographical Information System (GIS).

Keywords: water availability, climate change, micro-level